The expectations of a trusted source influence and shape our behavior.

Those we believe, admire or who seem "in the know" are trusted easily.

This is why influencers are so powerful, regardless of how you feel about them.

(And influencers are not just limited to social media…)

It’s a shortcut our brain takes due to the energy and time investment needed to vet or explore an idea.

We look at the person presenting this and ask:

• Does this idea seem plausible?

• Are they getting the result I desire?

• Does this person appear trustworthy?

If the answer to these is “Yes”, we concatenate their experience and knowledge with our own.

A problem arises when this process pertains to prediction.

When a trusted pundit predicts that everyone will perform an activity or hold a particular point of view, regardless of whether they do or not, we believe them.

This also encourages us to perform the activity or hold the viewpoint to prevent ostracization.

(Looking at the human experience as a whole, ostracization is synonymous with death and we try our best to avoid being alone, physically or ideologically.)

As an example think about this:

You hear on your favorite podcast that a musical artist is performing in your town, everyone will be in attendance, and tickets will go quickly.

This encourages you and other podcast listeners to buy tickets quickly even if the total number of tickets remaining is still high.

By predicting demand, the predictor creates demand.

The prediction only becomes true because of the initial prediction and forms a positive feedback system.

Although the prediction is initially incorrect, it forms a positive feedback loop that can either destroy:

• The reputation of the pundit (They get found out to be a liar)

OR

• The sovereignty of the populace (The populace loses some of its autonomy and becomes controlled).

Vet those you listen to.

Look at their track record but don't assume "once wrong always wrong".

Lastly learn to ask, "If this is true, what else must be true?”.

The effects of real truth are seen in adjacent and interdependent areas.

Don’t let your actions make incorrect predictions come true.

In Mastery,

Matthew