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- Are you sure you don't want to be certian?
“You’re going to like the way you look. I guarantee it.”
Guarantees can be stifling.
Promising a particular outcome can prevent the most positive outcome from occurring.
Think about this example using movies:
You are a movie producer and you have the choice of funding two films:
Film A is a reboot/sequel/reimagining of a movie that was popular 15 years ago with a projected guaranteed profit of $20 million
Film B is a new IP from a lesser know director with a capped loss of $10 million
Which would you pick?
Although it seems counterintuitive, the better choice is to pick film B.
It could lose up to 10 million dollars, (A condition that requires NO tickets to be purchased), but it could also profit.
The guarantee is used to cap losses while leaving the potential profit boundless.
Examples of this happening:
The Blair Witch Project (Budget: $60,000 Gross: $249 million)
Split (Budget: $9 million Gross: $278 million)
Super Size Me (Budget: $65,000 Gross: $22.2 million)
This, in my opinion, is why we get so many remakes and sequels instead of new IPs.
Guarantee your Downside
Guarantees are often used to “lock in” growth but this is shortsighted.
They should be utilized to limit your downside.
Downsides can be accounted for and minimized while leaving ample room for a significantly positive outcome when you think and operate probabilistically.
Placing the chains of certainty to a particulate outcome prevents the freedom needed for unique discoveries.
And if a discovery is found, you still may look at it as a failure because it is not your ideal outcome.
Instead of trying to lock in a specific positive outcome, seek to minimize your losses while maximizing your opportunity for success.
Minimize the effects of a non-ideal outcome
Learn to operate in tandem with the bell curve of outcomes
Maximize the requisite parts needed to build your best response
Will you achieve your optimal outcome each time?
No.
But when you learn to look at scenarios in light of probabilities, every outcome becomes something you can influence, manipulate, and use in your favor.
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